Lucky Loop
Research Ledger · 2026

Autonomous research · evidence-gated

Predict before compute.
Verify before claim.

Lucky Loop is an autonomous ML research agent. It forecasts an experiment's outcome with a language world model, runs the real code, and only claims what the evidence supports — negative results included.

Query · run M1

AThe loop
01

PREDICT

language world model, before compute

02

RUN

real code on real hardware

03

VERIFY

effect vs. seed noise

04

CLAIM

only what evidence supports

BClaim ledger
CONFIRMED

Feature scaling improves logistic regression on breast_cancer.

Survives reshuffling across seeds. Reported.

effect/noise = 10.7
NO EFFECT

Language world model beats trivial heuristics on tabular ML.

No measurable benefit. Reported anyway — honest negative result.

Δ ≈ 0 over 2 ablations
RETRACTED

Our pipeline reaches +98.7% improvement.

Did not reproduce. Our own verifier killed it. Verify before claim — applied to ourselves.

+98.7%
CAblation · world model vs baseline
World model vs a one-line cheapest-first baseline: compute saved per dataset, negative on 5 of 6
Ordering experiments by the world model's predicted accuracy vs a one-line “cheapest-first” heuristic. Negative = the world model spends more compute. Beaten on 5 of 6 datasets — the honest negative result.
DReferences · 6

Live instrument

See the agent run the loop in real time.

Open the Oracle